Any chance for a Corbyn led Labour Party?

There is a strongly held view among some in the Labour Party, the mainstream media, and the Conservatives that a victory for Jeremy Corbyn in the Labour leadership election will consign the party to its worst defeat since that under Michael Foot in 1983. This has led to the slightly bizarre phenomenon of the 'ToriesForCorbyn' Twitter campaign. These views are due to a misinterpretation of history and very poor maths.

First, why did Foot lose in 1983? It certainly was a terrible defeat but what is often forgotten is that in the early days of his leadership Labour were well ahead of the Conservatives in opinion polls (for what they are worth) and did OK in local elections. Commentators in 2015 conveniently forget that the Falklands War transformed everything for Margaret Thatcher and her victory in 1983 was built in that crest of popularity - shored up by the then very powerful press.The earlier lead that Labour had built up was also badly effected by the defection of many into the SDP. While we can't predict it, this set of circumstances will hopefully not be repeated. Engagement in a war like the Falklands is unlikely, the printed press is nowhere near as powerful as it was, social media is much more evenly split along party lines, and it is doubtful that even those to the right of the party will up and leave.

Second, what do I mean by poor maths? The Conservatives  have a 12-seat majority. This is smaller than the one John Major had and far less than what the Conservatives had in 1979. The Liberal Democrats were decimated at the election and the only way for them is up, Under the likeable and principled Tim Farron it is highly probable that they will make gains next time, especially at the Conservatives' expense in the West country. The SNP on the other hand realistically can only go in the opposite direction. That is not to say they won't do very well, but Labour should probably grab a handful of seats off them in 2020. UKIP is an unknown factor and their prospects must rest on the EU-referendum. If we vote to stay in then we would expect the wind to go out of their sail and they will dwindle somewhat. Likewise, a bruising debate will cause much internal damage to the Conservatives and they will be in a poor position to put much energy into the 2020 election. Will Labour win a majority? Perhaps not. But it is very likely that given the maths they will be able to form a minority government or go into a coalition with a more progressive Liberal Democrat party and maybe even the SNP. All of this suggests that whoever wins the leadership will stand a very good chance of being PM. I hope that is Jeremy Corbyn.

The result of the 2015 election was deeply disappointing to many who hoped to see an end of the austerity and division brought in by the last government. What went wrong? Of course many are asking that question and there is no simple answer. Some would say that Labour had drifted too far to the left and that is certainly how the media portrayed the situation. That argument hardly seems credible though. The people of Scotland rejected Labour and opted for a party that was (on the face of it at least) far more radical. The SNP were clearly an anti-austerity party and that must have been a key factor. Would the Scots really go for a more ‘moderate’ Labour Party. I don’t think so.

Ed Miliband should not be vilified but the leadership of the party, and their advisors, made big mistakes. The press from day one of the past government blamed Labour for the economic problems the country was facing. Hardly any economists believed this but incredibly Labour never convincingly argued against it. Maybe Ed Balls and co agreed with the media and that what was really needed was more austerity and this would have been a fear to many in Scotland. This coupled with the fear that the press stirred up about the power of the SNP led many in England also to abandon Labour. If the party had presented tangible and achievable policies, rather than bland aspirations, this would have helped to alleviate this.

What next? While the leadership of the party refused to contemplate deals with the SNP to form a government the situation is now very different. There has to be discussions and even an alliance between the Labour, the SNP, the SDLP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru, and the Liberal Democrats in Parliament. Such a coalition would be attractive to many but it would need to be genuinely progressive. Attempts to move Labour back to being a Blairite party would be disaster and none of the other parties would support it. Choosing the right leader for Labour is of course crucial and Andy Burnham would be the choice of many. What about the leader of the Liberal Democrats? This is not an irrelevant question because they will rebuild locally and in the West of England they will be the main alternatives to the Tories next time. The obvious choice of someone who could succeed would be Tim Farron.

All is not lost. The next five years will see dreadful cuts to public services, increased privatisation in the NHS, limits to welfare payments, and a destructive in-out debate about Europe. This has to galvanise effective opposition in preparation for a progressive coalition government in 2020.